Stephen Turner
Akash Kumar
Jordan Lee
Taylor Scott
How to run a Shape Up betting table: choose the next cycle’s bets
A betting table is the Shape Up meeting where a few senior stakeholders choose which shaped pitches the team builds in the next six-week cycle. It happens during the two-week cool-down, reviews only a handful of pitches, and ends with a cycle plan: the bets, and who works on each.
What a betting table is
The betting table comes from Shape Up, the product development method Basecamp published as a free online book. It is a meeting held during cool-down, the two weeks between six-week cycles.
At it, stakeholders decide what the team will build next. The output is a cycle plan: which pitches get a bet, and which people work on each one.
Shape Up calls these decisions bets, not plans. A bet has a payout defined in the pitch, it commits a team for the whole cycle without interruptions, and it caps the downside at six weeks.
How it differs from sprint or backlog meetings
A betting table doesn’t groom a backlog. Shape Up doesn’t keep a central one, so nothing old is on the table unless someone revives it on purpose. Pitches that lose aren’t stored: anyone who still cares tracks them their own way and brings them back.
| Betting table | Scrum sprint planning | |
|---|---|---|
| Inputs | A few pitches shaped in the last six weeks, plus any older pitch someone chose to lobby for again | Items from the Product Backlog, which the Product Owner prepares attendees to discuss |
| Commitment | Six weeks of uninterrupted time for one project or a small batch | A Sprint Goal and the backlog items selected to reach it |
| Who decides | A small group of senior people with the final word | The whole Scrum Team; the Developers select the items |
Who sits at the table
Keep it small and senior. At Basecamp, the table was the CEO, the CTO, a senior programmer and a product strategist.
The people who can approve the plan should be in the room. Shape Up's point is that there is no second step to validate it, and nobody can override the bets afterward.
- Someone with the last word on product.
- Someone who knows the technical cost and risk.
- Someone who knows who is available next cycle.
- The shapers of the pitches, if they aren't already at the table, to answer questions.
Before the call
Everyone reads the pitches on their own time first. Shape Up expects ad hoc one-on-one conversations in the weeks before to set some context, so the call itself is only for decisions.
A pitch is ready for the table when it has five parts:
- Problem: the raw idea, a use case, or something seen that motivates the work.
- Appetite: how much time it deserves, which constrains the solution.
- Solution: the core elements, concrete enough to understand.
- Rabbit holes: details called out to avoid trouble.
- No-gos: what is deliberately left out to fit the appetite.
Agenda for a one- to two-hour betting table
Basecamp's call rarely ran longer than an hour or two. A simple running order:
| Step | What happens |
|---|---|
| Context | Who is available next cycle, and what the team built in recent cycles |
| Pitches | Take each pitch in turn and work through the five questions below |
| Bets | Choose the big-batch project and any small-batch projects for the cycle |
| Teams | Pair each bet with a designer and one or two programmers |
| Close | Read back the cycle plan; pitches that lost are let go |
Five questions to ask of every pitch
Shape Up lists the questions you'll hear while the table debates. They make a useful checklist for the chair.
- Does the problem matter? Weigh it against the other problems competing for the same six weeks.
- Is the appetite right? A no to the time can hide an objection to the solution, so ask how people would feel about two weeks.
- Is the solution attractive? Discuss it at a high level, and stop if the call drifts into design work.
- Is this the right time? Recent work, morale and overdue fixes can make a good pitch wait.
- Are the right people available? Match the skills the project needs, and check vacations.
After the call
The cycle plan is the deliverable. At Basecamp, the bets for the next cycle are announced in a kick-off message.
Then the commitment holds. Teams aren't pulled away for "just a day", and work that doesn't ship in the cycle gets no extension by default. It has to come back as a new pitch.
Bugs follow the same logic. Most wait for cool-down, and a bug too big for cool-down is shaped into a pitch and competes at the next table.
Example: three pitches, two bets
This example is illustrative. A product team brings three pitches: a six-week rebuild of search, a two-week fix to email notifications, and a revived pitch for bulk export.
The table bets on search for the big batch team and the notification fix as one small-batch project. Bulk export loses because the person who knows that code is on leave. Its advocate keeps the pitch and can bring it back after the cycle.
Keep a record of the bets
Shape Up keeps no backlog, but the team still needs the cycle plan and the reasons behind it. If you hold the table as a call on Bridge, or capture it from Zoom, Google Meet or Teams, Bridge saves notes with a summary, decisions and action items, plus a speaker-labeled transcript.
A custom recap template can shape those notes around the meeting. For example, ask for sections such as Bets placed, Pitches passed and Team assignments.
File each betting table in a shared space, so anyone can open past cycle plans. Losing pitches stay with their advocates, as Shape Up intends.